2010 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle

11 oktober 2010

‘Media tablets’, ‘private cloud computing’, en ‘3D flat-panel TV’s’ zijn enkele van de technieken die naar de ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations’ zijn gepromoveerd, tenminste volgens de 2010 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle van Gartner. Gartner heeft de volwassenheid van 1800 technologien en trends onderzocht in 75 individuele ‘Hype Cycle’ rapporten, die een overzicht bieden van een IT of zakelijk kerngebied. ‘The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is the longest-running annual Hype Cycle, providing a cross-industry perspective on the technologies and trends that IT managers should consider in developing emerging-technology portfolios. …. The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies features technologies that are the focus of attention in the IT industry because of particularly high levels of hype, or those that may not be broadly acknowledged but which we believe have the potential for significant impact’, zo zegt Jackie Fenn, vice president en Gartner Fellow. ‘High-impact technologies at the Peak of Inflated Expectations during 2010 include private cloud computing, augmented reality, media tablets (such as the iPad), wireless power, 3D flat-panel TVs and displays, and activity streams, while cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms have tipped over the peak and will soon experience disillusionment among enterprise users’, zo zei Fenn.

‘Transformational technologies that will hit the mainstream in less than five years include media tablets, cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms. Longer term, beyond the five-year horizon, 3D printing, context delivery architectures, mobile robots, autonomous vehicles, terahertz waves and human augmentation will be transformational across a range of industries’, zo stelt Gartner. Volgens de rapportage van Gartner zijn de volgende thema’s ‘hot’:

  • ‘User experience and interaction’. Nieuwe manieren van gebruikersinteractie zullen leiden tot nieuwe gebruikspatronen, waardoor organisaties de gelegenheid krijgen om nieuwe manieren van informatieverspreiding te ontwikkelen en nieuwe manieren om transacties af te handelen te ontdekken (‘media tablets, 3D flat-panel Tvs, gesture recognition, tangible user interfaces’, zoals het rapport noemt).
  • ‘Augmented reality, context and the real-world Web’. De migratie naar het Web vanuit de individuele desktop naar een plek in het alledaagse leven schept nieuwe mogelijkheden voor gepersonaliseerde en ‘contextually aware’ toegang tot informatie. ‘Augmented reality is a hot topic in the mobile space, with platforms and services on iPhone and Android platforms, and it represents the next generation as location-aware applications move toward the plateau. Other elements such as 4G standard, sensor networks and context delivery architecture are evolving more slowly, but will play a key role in expanding the impact of IT in the physical world’, zo stelt het rapport.
  • ‘Data-driven decisions’. De kwantiteit en varieteit van de digitale data blijft groeien, tegelijk met de analysemogelijkheden van nieuwe bronnen, zoals locatieinformatie en sociale media. ‘The techniques themselves, such as predictive analytics, are relatively well established in many cases; the value resides in applying them in new applications such as social analytics and sentiment analysis’.
  • ‘Cloud-computing implications’. De adoptie van cloud computing neemt toe. ‘In Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, cloud computing overall appears just topping the peak, and private cloud computing is still rising. Cloud/Web platforms are featured, along with mobile application stores, to acknowledge the growing interest in platforms for application development and delivery’.

‘The Hype Cycle reports are a convenient way to look at a set of relevant technologies and trends’, zegt Fenn. ‘Many Gartner clients draw from multiple Hype Cycles, augmented with industry- or company-specific topics to create their own Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices as part of their annual technology planning. Technology providers use Hype Cycles as a way to understand the likely market reaction to their products and services, while investors watch for technologies that are on the rise in a Hype Cycle to try to catch them before they move into mainstream adoption’. Meer informatie is hier te vinden, met een video waarin Fenn een introductie geeft op de rapportage alsmede links naar 75 Hype Cycle rapporten en een gratis exemplaar van de Gartner rapportage, die hier wordt besproken.

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